Friday 29 January 2016

The Business End of the Season

I write this on the eve of the League Cup semi-final between Hibs and St Johnstone, which will be played on 30th January at Tynecastle. The last tie between these teams at that venue, also in the same competition resulted in a 3-1 win for Hibernian, after extra time goals from David Murphy and Abdessalam Benjelloun had added to Steven Fletcher's early goal to secure victory for the Hibees.

Back then, Hibernian were holding their own in the Scottish Premier League. John Collins had picked up the reins from the departed Tony Mowbray, and having seen off Hearts at Easter Road in the previous round (with the most dominant 1-0 win you're ever likely to see), Hibs were looking good for a strong finish to the season.

St Johnstone were riding high in the old Scottish First Division. Their manager, Owen Coyle, was winning admirers for the good work that he was doing with what had been a struggling side. St Johnstone would challenge for the title that season, and also reached the Scottish Cup semi-final, where they were thwarted by a strong Celtic side.

Hibs went on to win the League Cup that year, a resounding 5-1 victory over Jim Jefferies' Kilmarnock at Hampden was as good as it got for the Hibees under Collins. The rest of the season was marred by the infamous player revolt, and Hibs - like St Johnstone - were also to lose out at the semi final stage of the Scottish Cup, despite being heavy favourites to beat Dunfermline.

Fast forward to today, and the roles have been reversed. Hibs are challenging for the title in the second tier, while St Johnstone sit comfortably in the top six of the top flight. The semi final promises to be a fascinating tie. The Perth side have tried to play down their chances, calling Hibs out as favourites despite the gulf in the sides' respective league positions. Hibs do, undoubtedly, enjoy greater resources than St Johnstone.  I would imagine the playing budget at Easter Road trumps that of St Johnstone, and it is arguable that more Hibernian players would get into the first team at St Johnstone than vice versa.

That said, the benefit of regularly competing against top flight opposition should not be underestimated. You only have to look at St Johnstone's convincing 1-3 win at Ibrox in this competition earlier in the season for evidence of that. Rangers, at that point, had triumphed convincingly over every opponent that had been put in front of them (save, I suppose, from a narrow 1-0 win against Hibs at Ibrox - the sides separated by a terrific strike from a contentious free kick harshly awarded to the Glasgow side).

Rangers dominated possession but could not overcome the tactical nous of St Johnstone, who exposed weaknesses in Rangers' play time and time again.

I suspect anyone looking at this game objectively would have St Johnstone as favourites on that basis. It is hard to conceive of a convincing argument where a top six side goes into a match against a second tier side as underdogs, despite the cliched talk from St Johnstone that the bigger support that Hibs will enjoy puts the pressure on Hibs.

It should be remembered that Hibs have enjoyed larger crowds than most Scottish sides for a considerable period, and despite relegation, the crowd numbers have largely held firm. A full house is more likely to unsettle St Johnstone in that respect.

For me, the game is too close to call. I know Hibs are capable of winning, but that's not to say that I think we will. Convincing wins against Aberdeen and Dundee United should give the players the confidence to approach this tie with a view to winning it. However, St Johnstone are a good side, with a manager who is tactically astute and prepares his players very well. I suspect the game will be a tight affair, and could go all the way to penalties.

Regardless of the outcome, Hibernian have another vital tie right on the back of this game. On Tuesday night, Morton will host Hibs in the re-arranged fixture from the earlier postponed game. With Rangers facing Falkirk this weekend, it is essential that Hibs take maximum points from this tie.

Morton, under the stewardship of former Hibs manager Jim Duffy, have equipped themselves well in their first season in the Championship. Hibs will need to be at their best to triumph, and there is no room for a post-semi final hangover. With Rangers enjoying a five point gap on Hibs (with the potential to stretch that to eight points, should they beat Falkirk), Alan Stubbs' side cannot afford to slip up.

It is a period that will tell us a lot about this Hibernian side. They have already answered a lot of questions this season. Their form has been terrific, and even when performances have slipped, Hibs have managed to dig out results. This has not been a trait associated with Hibs for some time, and so to see it ingrained in this team is hugely satisfying.

At one point, Hibs trailed Rangers by eleven points and it's testament to the side that they have cut that gap to the extent that they have. With Rangers still to visit Easter Road and Falkirk, the title is far from being out of Hibs' reach. There is no margin for error now though, Hibs could conceivably get away with the points dropped earlier in the season if they continue their current form, however with games fast running out, every point is a prisoner.

We are right at the business end of the season. What happens over the next few months will have a huge bearing on the health of the football club. Promotion is essential, Hibs have continued to operate as a top flight side despite relegation, but that can only be sustained for so long.

Stubbs, for his part, looks to have done a cracking job in giving the side the best possible chance of going up. His acquisition of Anthony Stokes sent out a resounding message that Hibs were not content to settle for second place. While Stokes grabbed the headlines, the introduction of Chris Dagnall could prove to be just as significant.

I got my first look at Dagnall on Saturday, during Hibs' comfortable 3-1 win over St Mirren. Dagnall did not give the defenders a moment's peace. For a wee guy, he gave the centre halves a torrid time, and it's the first time in a long time that I've seen a Hibs striker so physically dominant against their opponent (actually, that's not quite true - Farid El Alagui was exceptional in that regard.).

Dagnall's movement and constant harrying of the defenders created space for his team mates, the benefit of which was evident in John McGinn's fine goal in the first half. With Dominique Malonga departing to Italy's Seria B, Dagnall's contribution could be very telling in the run in.

Stubbs has also added Finnish goalkeeper Otso Virtanen (he's not Finnish, he's only 21...) and full back Niklas Gunnarrson  to Stokes and Dagnall. Crucially, top scorer Jason Cummings has remained at the club, and I believe a new, long term deal has been put on the table for the irrepressible hit man.

Hibs look in good shape for the run-in, take away the fact that we're still in the Championship and it's a very exciting time for Hibs fans. We are seeing a winning side playing good football. A young, talented manager bringing the best out of a young side - there are echoes of the side that took to the Tynecastle pitch to face St Johnstone back in 2007, and with a board and support fully behind the team, there is a genuine reason to be enthusiastic about the title run in.

And if that wasn't enough, there's always the prospect of a Scottish Cup derby to come, and as Danny Grainger pointed out in his ill-considered tweet , we all know what happened the last time Hibs met Hearts in the Scottish Cup...

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