Wednesday 14 January 2015

Bogey Teams Make a Point

The last blog I wrote followed a terrific (and it was terrific) Hibs win over Rangers, where Hibernian managed to whittle down the lead that Glasgow's newest team had over them to just four points.

Hibs were about to face the runaway league leaders in the New Year's derby and I - like most of the support - was looking forward to the game and the opportunity to claw that points deficit back a little more.

Between that game and now, Hibs faced Falkirk at Easter Road, having suffered two defeats to the Bairns already this season, Falkirk were fast becoming something of a bogey team for Hibs, and so Hibs would be hoping to put a bit of distance between themselves and Falkirk.

As things stand today, Hearts' lead over Hibs extends to the point where Hibs need significantly more than snookers to have any hope of finishing the season as champions, and Rangers have pushed on to take the gap between them and their Leith counterparts to eight points.

So, let's have a look at what happened, starting with the derby. It would be fair to say that for one reason or another, Hearts have definitely become a bona-fide bogey team to Hibs. For Hibs fans, Hearts represent the last team that we would want to hold a jinx over us. You really have to be unlucky to have your city rivals as your bogey-team.

There are a number of reasons for that, in recent history it's because Hearts spent significantly more than Hibs on their team, and derbies generally went with form. Last season, with Hearts in the doldrums and having a horrendous time of things, Hibs mustered only one victory against them, Liam Craig's penalty winning the New Year fixture at Easter Road, giving Hibs fans a lingering memory of what joy is possible from watching football as the rest of the season descended into disaster under Terry Butcher.

Hearts have carried a huge amount of favour over the last couple of seasons, Hibs having two perfectly legitimate goals chalked off in absurd refereeing decisions, but this blog isn't to highlight injustices or complaints about referees, and it's only fair to acknowledge that while big decisions like those played a part, so too did very lacklustre and abject Hibs performances.

When I was starting to attend Hibs games, Hearts went on a run where Hibs failed to beat them in twenty-two matches. The manager at the time, Alex Miller, appeared to have no idea on how to halt that record and derby days became depressingly predictable.

To this day, no matter how well Hibs are doing, I watch a derby waiting for the moment where Hibs contrive to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (or at least, snatch a draw). Meanwhile, Hearts are able to approach derbies knowing that no matter how bad things are, something will likely go their way.

There have been some exceptions, but they are few and far between. I know that back in the day, there was a period where Hearts couldn't buy a win against Hibs so it hasn't always been the case that Hearts have been a bogey-team, and I can only hope that now we're operating on a much more level financial playing field, with Hearts finally having to live within their means, that there will be more balance in the results between the teams.



That was the case at Tynecastle, Hibs were desperately unlucky not to take all three points in the previous derby at Easter Road, and showed that they were more than a match for the league leaders, and again Hibs put in an impressive performance with most neutral observers noting that Hearts could have had no arguments had Hibs won the match, instead of having to settle for a point.

Hibs took an early lead, a sublime cross from Scott Allan found Jason Cummings and his close range shot flew past Alexander in the Hearts goal. It capped a period of fairly sustained pressure from Hibs, with the visitors putting pressure on the hosts from the outset.

Cummings had a golden opportunity to put Hibs two goals ahead shortly afterwards, sending a free header just wide with the goal at his mercy. Hibs were to rue that miss, with Hearts getting an unlikely goal shortly afterwards.

The second half was a more even affair, with Hibs finishing the stronger of the two sides but unable to get a winning goal.

The result left Alan Stubbs frustrated as again, Hibs had somehow not got the win that their performance had probably deserved. This is a trait that Hibs have displayed throughout the season and can account for a large number of the points between them and the two sides above them. Hearts have played well in the vast majority of their games, and won most of them. Where they've not played well they've managed to take something from the games - and that's why they sit deservedly at the top of the table. Rangers, for their part, have been less impressive and seem to be stumbling from result to result, but those results tend to be wins, and for all that you couldn't pay me to go and watch them, I'd happily see Hibs take that winning habit from them.

Hibs have lost games we have dominated, and also lost the games we deserved to take nothing from. On Saturday, against Falkirk, Hibs should have won. Having started brightly, Hibs took the lead when Jason Cummings' shot was fumbled by Jamie MacDonald in the Falkirk goal. It's ironic that MacDonald was generally excellent when he featured against Hibs in derbies while he was with Hearts, and yet he looked suspect throughout the game on Saturday.

Falkirk took advantage of some seriously sloppy defending from Hibs to draw level, and only a very late flag from the Referee's Assistant (probably the latest offside decision I've ever seen given - but credit to the Assistant, she got it right) saved Hibs from falling behind in the match.

Hibs seemed to take heed of the warning and stormed into a 3-1 lead, with Jason Cummings completing a first half hat-trick (as predicted, again, by  @Lmc2105 Lee McLennan - two hat trick predictions coming through this season!). Hibs started the second half brightly with new loan signing Martin Boyle first missing what was essentially an open goal, then having the ball inexplicably nicked from his toes as he was about to shoot by team-mate Scott Allan. Had either chance gone in, the game would have likely been out of reach for Falkirk.

Instead, the Bairns were lifted by the let-off, and they capitalised on some horrendous defending from Hibs to bring the scores back level. Hibs were not able to pull in front again, and a match that was there to be won ended with Hibs falling further behind the sides above them.

Alan Stubbs' post-match interview reflected a manager who was evidently frustrated and angered at his team's inability to win matches, and as pleased as he must have been with their recent performances, his criticisms of the side were entirely justified.

Hibs' right-back, David Gray, had been missing for this game in order to get a groin operation. Hibs definitely missed him, and it will be interesting to see if Alan Stubbs makes signing a right-back a priority while the transfer window is open this month. If he doesn't. there is much work to do to bring balance to a back four that comprised of four left-footed players, with Calum Booth playing out of position on the right side of the defence. Under pressure, the defence did not look comfortable at all. For all that Paul Hanlon and Liam Fontaine have been excellent this season, they looked disjointed and nervous without the steadying presence of Gray.

Mark Oxley in goal did little to help, the conditions causing all sorts of problems for the keeper who has just extended his stay at Easter Road until the end of the season. It was an uncharacteristically poor performance from Oxley, and one would hope that it was a one off that could be attributed to the horrendous weather.

And so Hibs look forward to Cowdenbeath visiting Easter Road on Saturday. It's an opportunity to get some points back on at least one of the two teams above them, with Rangers hosting Hearts on Friday evening. I'd love to say that I was confident that Hibs will do that, but Hibs just haven't got that winning habit just yet.

As for laying some of the bogey-sides to rest, Hibs get another shot at both Falkirk and Hearts before the season's out, so here's hoping that Hibs develop the knack of winning games they deserve to win between now and then.

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